The pending home sales decline in September was sharp and it was everywhere. NAR reports that its Pending Home Sales Index fell 7.3% from August and 11.3% from a year earlier, with contract signings down in all four regions. Contracts are the part of the pipeline you can still influence, so this is the number to read before you plan November. This guide covers what NAR reported, why signed contracts predict closings two months out, and four steps to change buyer follow-up while rates stay high. It builds on our guide to automating follow-up on slow-moving leads.
What Did NAR Report About Pending Home Sales?
In its September pending home sales report, released October 20, NAR says contract activity declined in all four regions on both measures. The West had the largest monthly drop, followed by the South, the Midwest and the Northeast.
| Region | Month Over Month | Year Over Year |
|---|---|---|
| Northeast | -4.2% | -9.4% |
| Midwest | -6.5% | -8.7% |
| South | -8.2% | -12.0% |
| West | -9.2% | -15.0% |
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said “Market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates.” He added that housing affordability is more affected by changes in mortgage rates than by job or income gains, and that “mortgage rates could be topping out.”
The report also cites Realtor.com® Economics for local data. Pending sales fell year over year even in the strongest of the 50 largest metro areas, where the smallest declines were Nashville at 2.0% and Hartford at 2.1%.
What Does the Pending Home Sales Decline Mean for Agents?
NAR describes the index as a leading indicator based on signed contracts that have not yet closed, and says monthly contract activity tracks closed existing-home sales two months later. In plain terms, fewer September contracts point to fewer closings in the coming weeks, so the gap you feel in October and November was set in September.
A pending home sales decline of this size also means each buyer lead takes longer to become a closing. Yun suggested that buyers and sellers may be waiting for mortgage rates to improve. A buyer who waits is not a lost lead, but one who is ignored will find another agent. Yun also said “the limited number of distressed properties is ensuring steady home prices,” so the gap is about financing, not about collapsing values.
How Should Agents Adjust Buyer Follow-Up in Four Steps?
Treat the next 60 days of a pending home sales decline as a nurture problem. The four steps below are our suggestions, not rules, and you should adjust them to your market.
- Sort buyers by readiness. Split your list into buyers who are pre-approved, buyers who are waiting on rates and buyers who have gone quiet. Our guide to checking financing readiness before buyers tour explains the questions to ask.
- Check financing again. A rate that moved since the last conversation can change a payment, so ask each active buyer whether the numbers still work before the next showing.
- Set a cadence for each group. Active buyers get a weekly check-in, waiting buyers get a short monthly note with one rate or inventory update, and quiet ones get a gentle reminder. Our walkthrough of a buyer nurture campaign for slow weeks shows how to build it.
- Put a review date on every buyer. Pick a day to look again, such as the next big rate move or the first of the month, so no lead sits untouched.
Speed still matters when a buyer does raise a hand. Our breakdown of how a fast first reply wins buyers shows why the first answer often decides who gets the next call. Infina AI, our own product, is an AI assistant for real estate agents that helps with follow-up and listing questions, so a buyer who writes on a Sunday evening still hears back.
What About Your Listings?
A pending home sales decline usually means longer days on market, which puts pressure on listing conversations too. If a seller asks why there are no offers, bring the data and a plan. Our guide to talking price with sellers whose listing stalled gives four steps for that meeting.
Keep in mind that these are national figures. NAR’s own regional numbers differ by several points, and your market may be better or worse, so compare your own signed contracts with last year before you change your plan.
Related Reading
These guides cover buyers who need more time and how to keep them engaged.
- See why financing readiness matters now for buyer questions.
- Build a buyer lead nurture campaign for the weeks ahead.
Final Thoughts
The pending home sales decline in September is a warning about November closings, not a verdict on your market. NAR points to fast-rising mortgage rates and says rates could be topping out, which means many buyers are waiting, not leaving. Sort your buyers by readiness, check financing again, give each group a cadence and put a review date on every name. The agents who keep buyers warm now will be first in line when rates ease.
